diptam
08-05 02:15 PM
You are probably talking about a thin % of peoples - this is a lame argument for most of the Eb3 folks who can and want to port to Eb2 legally.
Let me give you my case. I was eligible for both EB2 and EB3 when my GC labor was filed - my employer filed it in EB3 because the queue is longer and i remain with them for longer duration. I had about 390 days of H clock left so arguing with that employer and finding another one was also not an option because for getting H extension beyond 6 yrs needs the GC labor to be more than 365 days old.
By the way I've seen the horrors of Labor Sub , I've suffered BEC cold storages for years,now I'm struggling with my Eb3 140 for 15 months at NSC and after all that if i port to EB2 and get my 485 quickly - what Problem you have or what's wrong in that ?
Good points, but let me put a counter argument. Two people , one is named SunnySurya and the other is named Mr XYZ. Both came to the USA at the same time in 1999. The difference was SunnySurya came here for his masters and the other guy came here through shady means.
Mr XYZ was able to file his green card in 2002 in EB3 category based on his shady arrangements with his employer, whereas Mr SunnySurya continued to do right and socially acceptable things i.e. studied, got a job and then after several years this big company filled his green card in EB2 category in 2006.
On the other hand after strugling for several years Mr. XYZ has collected enough years on his resume to be elligible for EB2. Now he want to port his PD
SunnySurya's PD is 2006 and Mr. XYZ PD is 2002. Now if Mr. XYZ want to stand in EB2 line, I wonder what problems SunnySurya can have???:confused:
Let me give you my case. I was eligible for both EB2 and EB3 when my GC labor was filed - my employer filed it in EB3 because the queue is longer and i remain with them for longer duration. I had about 390 days of H clock left so arguing with that employer and finding another one was also not an option because for getting H extension beyond 6 yrs needs the GC labor to be more than 365 days old.
By the way I've seen the horrors of Labor Sub , I've suffered BEC cold storages for years,now I'm struggling with my Eb3 140 for 15 months at NSC and after all that if i port to EB2 and get my 485 quickly - what Problem you have or what's wrong in that ?
Good points, but let me put a counter argument. Two people , one is named SunnySurya and the other is named Mr XYZ. Both came to the USA at the same time in 1999. The difference was SunnySurya came here for his masters and the other guy came here through shady means.
Mr XYZ was able to file his green card in 2002 in EB3 category based on his shady arrangements with his employer, whereas Mr SunnySurya continued to do right and socially acceptable things i.e. studied, got a job and then after several years this big company filled his green card in EB2 category in 2006.
On the other hand after strugling for several years Mr. XYZ has collected enough years on his resume to be elligible for EB2. Now he want to port his PD
SunnySurya's PD is 2006 and Mr. XYZ PD is 2002. Now if Mr. XYZ want to stand in EB2 line, I wonder what problems SunnySurya can have???:confused:
wallpaper #39;American Idol#39; season 10 rock
BMS
07-11 10:09 AM
Thanks Milind70,
I had submitted the lattest I 94 to my company
but somehow they filed ext with I 94 that came along with i 797
now i will get three yr ext with I 140 cleared
then i can get new i 94 with stamping
You mean,
talk to immigration officer now at local off?
can they correct that i doubt since its already expired and i have new I797 with I94
I had submitted the lattest I 94 to my company
but somehow they filed ext with I 94 that came along with i 797
now i will get three yr ext with I 140 cleared
then i can get new i 94 with stamping
You mean,
talk to immigration officer now at local off?
can they correct that i doubt since its already expired and i have new I797 with I94
jayleno
08-05 02:44 PM
Guys,
Please stop this sick discussion. Do not allow this kind of divisive tactics to work on us.
Please stop this sick discussion. Do not allow this kind of divisive tactics to work on us.
2011 Casey Abrams Gallery
thakurrajiv
04-06 09:35 AM
I think you missed my point. I was not trying to connect the ARM reset schedule with write-offs at wall street firms. Instead, I was trying to point out that there will be increased number of foreclosures as those ARMs reset over the next 36 months.
The next phase of the logic is: increased foreclosures will lead to increased inventory, which leads to lower prices, which leads to still more foreclosures and "walk aways" (people -citizens- who just dont want to pay the high mortgages any more since it is way cheaper to rent). This leads to still lower prices. Prices will likely stabilize when it is cheaper to buy vs. rent. Right now that calculus is inverted. In many bubble areas (both coasts, at a minimum) you would pay significantly more to buy than to rent (2X or more per month with a conventional mortgage in some good areas).
On the whole, I will debate only on financial and rational points. I am not going to question someone's emotional position on "homeownership." It is too complicated to extract someone out of their strongly held beliefs about how it is better to pay your own mortgage than someone elses, etc. All that is hubris that is ingrained from 5+ years of abnormally strong rising prices.
Let us say that you have two kids, age 2 and 5. The 5 year old is entering kindergarten next fall. You decide to buy in a good school district this year. Since your main decision was based on school choice, let us say that your investment horizon is 16 years (the year your 2 year old will finish high school at age 18).
Let us further assume that you will buy a house at the price of $600,000 in Bergen County, with 20% down ($120,000) this summer. The terms of the loan are 30 year fixed, 5.75% APR. This loan payment alone is $2800 per month. On top of that you will be paying at least 1.5% of value in property taxes, around $9,000 per year, or around $750 per month. Insurance will cost you around $1500 - $2000 per year, or another $150 or so per month. So your total committed payments will be around $3,700 per month.
You will pay for yard work (unless you are a do-it-yourself-er), and maintenance, and through the nose for utilities because a big house costs big to heat and cool. (Summers are OK, but desis want their houses warm enough in the winter for a lungi or veshti:))
Let us assume further that in Bergen county, you can rent something bigger and more comfortable than your 1200 sq ft apartment from a private party for around $2000. So your rental cost to house payment ratio is around 1.8X (3700/2000).
Let us say further that the market drops 30% conservatively (will likely be more), from today through bottom in 4 years. Your $600k house will be worth 30% less, i.e. $420,000. Your loan will still be worth around $450k. If you needed to sell at this point in time, with 6% selling cost, you will need to bring cash to closing as a seller i.e., you are screwed. At escrow, you will need to pay off the loan of $450k, and pay 6% closing costs, which means you need to bring $450k+$25k-$420k = $55,000 to closing.
So you stand to lose:
1. Your down payment of $120k
2. Your cash at closing if you sell in 4 years: $55k
3. Rental differential: 48 months X (3700 - 2000) = $81k
Total potential loss: $250,000!!!
This is not a "nightmare scenario" but a very real one. It is happenning right now in many parts of the country, and is just now hitting the more populated areas of the two coasts. There is still more to come.
My 2 cents for you guys, desi bhais, please do what you need to do, but keep your eyes open. This time the downturn is very different from the business-investment related downturn that followed the dot com bust earlier t his decade.
Jung.lee very good second post from you. People still think it is very easy to keep on holding onto your home for long time till turn around happens.
But life events can cause you to sell like
1. Job loss and not able to find job in the same area till back up money runs out.
2. Kids grow up and you need to pay for college and you have little saving as you are holding to see turn around
3. Hope not but some medical emergency.
There can be many more situations. Do you know what people are currently doing in these situation ?
Get money from Home equity ATM machine !!
Personally I will be scared to buy now as my payment will be more than 50% of my salary and any of above situations will cause me to sell.
The prices have to become saner ....
This is very different from anything we have seen. Wall street will change, money will be harder to come by.
I think time to say " Welcome savings again ". Long term very good for US as country.
The next phase of the logic is: increased foreclosures will lead to increased inventory, which leads to lower prices, which leads to still more foreclosures and "walk aways" (people -citizens- who just dont want to pay the high mortgages any more since it is way cheaper to rent). This leads to still lower prices. Prices will likely stabilize when it is cheaper to buy vs. rent. Right now that calculus is inverted. In many bubble areas (both coasts, at a minimum) you would pay significantly more to buy than to rent (2X or more per month with a conventional mortgage in some good areas).
On the whole, I will debate only on financial and rational points. I am not going to question someone's emotional position on "homeownership." It is too complicated to extract someone out of their strongly held beliefs about how it is better to pay your own mortgage than someone elses, etc. All that is hubris that is ingrained from 5+ years of abnormally strong rising prices.
Let us say that you have two kids, age 2 and 5. The 5 year old is entering kindergarten next fall. You decide to buy in a good school district this year. Since your main decision was based on school choice, let us say that your investment horizon is 16 years (the year your 2 year old will finish high school at age 18).
Let us further assume that you will buy a house at the price of $600,000 in Bergen County, with 20% down ($120,000) this summer. The terms of the loan are 30 year fixed, 5.75% APR. This loan payment alone is $2800 per month. On top of that you will be paying at least 1.5% of value in property taxes, around $9,000 per year, or around $750 per month. Insurance will cost you around $1500 - $2000 per year, or another $150 or so per month. So your total committed payments will be around $3,700 per month.
You will pay for yard work (unless you are a do-it-yourself-er), and maintenance, and through the nose for utilities because a big house costs big to heat and cool. (Summers are OK, but desis want their houses warm enough in the winter for a lungi or veshti:))
Let us assume further that in Bergen county, you can rent something bigger and more comfortable than your 1200 sq ft apartment from a private party for around $2000. So your rental cost to house payment ratio is around 1.8X (3700/2000).
Let us say further that the market drops 30% conservatively (will likely be more), from today through bottom in 4 years. Your $600k house will be worth 30% less, i.e. $420,000. Your loan will still be worth around $450k. If you needed to sell at this point in time, with 6% selling cost, you will need to bring cash to closing as a seller i.e., you are screwed. At escrow, you will need to pay off the loan of $450k, and pay 6% closing costs, which means you need to bring $450k+$25k-$420k = $55,000 to closing.
So you stand to lose:
1. Your down payment of $120k
2. Your cash at closing if you sell in 4 years: $55k
3. Rental differential: 48 months X (3700 - 2000) = $81k
Total potential loss: $250,000!!!
This is not a "nightmare scenario" but a very real one. It is happenning right now in many parts of the country, and is just now hitting the more populated areas of the two coasts. There is still more to come.
My 2 cents for you guys, desi bhais, please do what you need to do, but keep your eyes open. This time the downturn is very different from the business-investment related downturn that followed the dot com bust earlier t his decade.
Jung.lee very good second post from you. People still think it is very easy to keep on holding onto your home for long time till turn around happens.
But life events can cause you to sell like
1. Job loss and not able to find job in the same area till back up money runs out.
2. Kids grow up and you need to pay for college and you have little saving as you are holding to see turn around
3. Hope not but some medical emergency.
There can be many more situations. Do you know what people are currently doing in these situation ?
Get money from Home equity ATM machine !!
Personally I will be scared to buy now as my payment will be more than 50% of my salary and any of above situations will cause me to sell.
The prices have to become saner ....
This is very different from anything we have seen. Wall street will change, money will be harder to come by.
I think time to say " Welcome savings again ". Long term very good for US as country.
more...
SunnySurya
12-22 02:41 PM
See me standing there in the video!
http://www.dailypioneer.com/DisplayContent.aspx?ContentID=145268&URLName=Indian-Americans-ask-UN-to-declare-Pak-a-terrorist-state
and
http://atlasshrugs2000.typepad.com/atlas_shrugs/2008/12/india-free-men.html
****
Indian Americans ask UN to declare Pak a terrorist state
PTI | New York
Braving sub zero temperature and cold wind, more than 200 supporters and workers of dozens of Indian American organisation held a demonstration outside the UN, seeking the world body declare Pakistan a terrorist state.
The demonstrators, from New York and adjoining New Jersey and Connecticut states spearheaded by Overseas Friends of BJP (OFBJP) and Indian American Intellectual Forum, demanded that the international community take action against Saudi Arabia also as groups based there had been funding the terror operations which are planned and executed from Pakistan.
The international community, they said, need impose economic sanction against Pakistan and Saudi Arabia and force Islamabad to rein in its "infamous" Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI) which, they alleged, provides logistic and other support to terrorists.
If Pakistan does not hand over the suspects that India has demanded, they should be tried by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity, they said.
The demonstrators carried pictures of Jewish couple Rabbi Gavriel Holtzberg and wife Rivka, who were murdered by the terrorists during Mumbai attacks, with caption: "It is a crime to be a Jew?" The demonstration began with a silence observed for one minute to pay homage to the victims of Mumbai attacks and the police officers who were killed in the action.
"Who is funding terrorism?' Saudi Arabia," "Down with Pakistan," "Pakistan, a failed state," "Stop aid to Pakistan," and "Radical Islam is the worldwide problem," were among the slogans that they shouted.
Gaurang Vaishnav, a spokesperson of the Tristate Indians under whose banner the demonstration was organized, said that it was important that countries such as US, Britain, Israel and India come together to evolve a strategy to root out the terrorism.
************************
SOLIDARITY DEMONSTRATION
Sunday, December 21, 2008 1.00 - 3.00 P. M.
Dag Hammarskjold Plaza (East 47th Street between 1st Ave. and 2nd Ave.) Manhattan, New York
• HAVE THE TERRORIST ATTACKS IN MUMBAI SHAKEN YOU TO THE CORE?
• ARE YOU SICK TO YOUR STOMACH WITH THE PUSSYFOOTING OF COWARDLY LEADERS?
• DO YOU WANT TO PROCLAIM TO THE WORLD PAKISTAN’S INVOVLEMENT IN THESE ATTACKS?
• DOES YOUR HEART GRIEVE FOR THE TORTURED JEWISH PEOPLE OF CHABAD LUBAVITCH?
• DO YOU SHED TEARS FOR 200 PEOPLE MASSACRED IN COLD BLOOD AND 400 INJURED?
• DOES THE LOSS OF SOME OF THE BRAVEST AND FINEST OF THE POLICE & NSG BOTHER YOU?
• HAVE YOU HAD ENOUGH WITH ONE AFTER ANOTHER TERRORIST ATTACKS?
• DO YOU WANT TO HIGHLIGHT THE CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY?
• IS “ENOUGH IS ENOUGH” FOR YOU? DO YOU WANT TO DO SOMETHING?
If you answered YES to any one of the above, then
Come Rain, Snow or Cold, JOIN
TRI-STATE INDIANS on SUNDAY, DECEMBER 21 at 1:00 P. M.
The latest Pakistan sponsored terrorist attacks have traumatized the nation and left deep scars on its psyche. Property worth millions of dollars is destroyed and the economy is affected adversely. Safety of the people and security of the nation is compromised
Who will set the things right? WE THE CONCERNED PEOPLE...
TRISTATE INDIANS: Supporting Organizations
Aligarh Muslim University Engineering Alumni Association of North America
Afghan Hindu Association, Inc
Arsha Bodha Center
Art of Living Foundation, USA
Baba Balak Nath Temple, New York
Bangladeshi Hindus of America, New York
Bangladesh Minority Forum, USA
Bunt Association of North America
Ekal Vidyalaya Foundation of USA
Federation of Indian Associations
Friends of India Society, International
Hindi Samiti of USA
Hindu Center, New York
Hindu Collective Initiative of North America (HCINA)
Hindu Human Rights Watch
Hindu International Council Against Defamation (HICAD)
Hindu Right Action Force (HINDRAF)
Hindu Swayamsevak Sangh
Indian American Intellectual Forum
Kanchi Kamkoti Foundation USA
Kannada Koota
Malyali Hindu Mandalam of North America
Marathi Vishwa
Nataraja Mandir (WSFC)
Om Temple of Garden State
Overseas Friends of BJP
Overseas Sindhu Sabha, New York
Panchvati Ashram, New York
Phagwah Parade & Festival Committee
Punjabi Darbar Religious & Cultural Society
Sadhanalaya Dance, Inc.
Samskrita Bharati
Satya Narayan Mandir, Elmhurst
Save Temples in India
Shree Trimurthi Bhavan
Sindhi Circle, New York
The Caribbean Voice
The South Asian Times
Vishwa Hindu Parishad of America
and many more …
http://www.dailypioneer.com/DisplayContent.aspx?ContentID=145268&URLName=Indian-Americans-ask-UN-to-declare-Pak-a-terrorist-state
and
http://atlasshrugs2000.typepad.com/atlas_shrugs/2008/12/india-free-men.html
****
Indian Americans ask UN to declare Pak a terrorist state
PTI | New York
Braving sub zero temperature and cold wind, more than 200 supporters and workers of dozens of Indian American organisation held a demonstration outside the UN, seeking the world body declare Pakistan a terrorist state.
The demonstrators, from New York and adjoining New Jersey and Connecticut states spearheaded by Overseas Friends of BJP (OFBJP) and Indian American Intellectual Forum, demanded that the international community take action against Saudi Arabia also as groups based there had been funding the terror operations which are planned and executed from Pakistan.
The international community, they said, need impose economic sanction against Pakistan and Saudi Arabia and force Islamabad to rein in its "infamous" Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI) which, they alleged, provides logistic and other support to terrorists.
If Pakistan does not hand over the suspects that India has demanded, they should be tried by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity, they said.
The demonstrators carried pictures of Jewish couple Rabbi Gavriel Holtzberg and wife Rivka, who were murdered by the terrorists during Mumbai attacks, with caption: "It is a crime to be a Jew?" The demonstration began with a silence observed for one minute to pay homage to the victims of Mumbai attacks and the police officers who were killed in the action.
"Who is funding terrorism?' Saudi Arabia," "Down with Pakistan," "Pakistan, a failed state," "Stop aid to Pakistan," and "Radical Islam is the worldwide problem," were among the slogans that they shouted.
Gaurang Vaishnav, a spokesperson of the Tristate Indians under whose banner the demonstration was organized, said that it was important that countries such as US, Britain, Israel and India come together to evolve a strategy to root out the terrorism.
************************
SOLIDARITY DEMONSTRATION
Sunday, December 21, 2008 1.00 - 3.00 P. M.
Dag Hammarskjold Plaza (East 47th Street between 1st Ave. and 2nd Ave.) Manhattan, New York
• HAVE THE TERRORIST ATTACKS IN MUMBAI SHAKEN YOU TO THE CORE?
• ARE YOU SICK TO YOUR STOMACH WITH THE PUSSYFOOTING OF COWARDLY LEADERS?
• DO YOU WANT TO PROCLAIM TO THE WORLD PAKISTAN’S INVOVLEMENT IN THESE ATTACKS?
• DOES YOUR HEART GRIEVE FOR THE TORTURED JEWISH PEOPLE OF CHABAD LUBAVITCH?
• DO YOU SHED TEARS FOR 200 PEOPLE MASSACRED IN COLD BLOOD AND 400 INJURED?
• DOES THE LOSS OF SOME OF THE BRAVEST AND FINEST OF THE POLICE & NSG BOTHER YOU?
• HAVE YOU HAD ENOUGH WITH ONE AFTER ANOTHER TERRORIST ATTACKS?
• DO YOU WANT TO HIGHLIGHT THE CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY?
• IS “ENOUGH IS ENOUGH” FOR YOU? DO YOU WANT TO DO SOMETHING?
If you answered YES to any one of the above, then
Come Rain, Snow or Cold, JOIN
TRI-STATE INDIANS on SUNDAY, DECEMBER 21 at 1:00 P. M.
The latest Pakistan sponsored terrorist attacks have traumatized the nation and left deep scars on its psyche. Property worth millions of dollars is destroyed and the economy is affected adversely. Safety of the people and security of the nation is compromised
Who will set the things right? WE THE CONCERNED PEOPLE...
TRISTATE INDIANS: Supporting Organizations
Aligarh Muslim University Engineering Alumni Association of North America
Afghan Hindu Association, Inc
Arsha Bodha Center
Art of Living Foundation, USA
Baba Balak Nath Temple, New York
Bangladeshi Hindus of America, New York
Bangladesh Minority Forum, USA
Bunt Association of North America
Ekal Vidyalaya Foundation of USA
Federation of Indian Associations
Friends of India Society, International
Hindi Samiti of USA
Hindu Center, New York
Hindu Collective Initiative of North America (HCINA)
Hindu Human Rights Watch
Hindu International Council Against Defamation (HICAD)
Hindu Right Action Force (HINDRAF)
Hindu Swayamsevak Sangh
Indian American Intellectual Forum
Kanchi Kamkoti Foundation USA
Kannada Koota
Malyali Hindu Mandalam of North America
Marathi Vishwa
Nataraja Mandir (WSFC)
Om Temple of Garden State
Overseas Friends of BJP
Overseas Sindhu Sabha, New York
Panchvati Ashram, New York
Phagwah Parade & Festival Committee
Punjabi Darbar Religious & Cultural Society
Sadhanalaya Dance, Inc.
Samskrita Bharati
Satya Narayan Mandir, Elmhurst
Save Temples in India
Shree Trimurthi Bhavan
Sindhi Circle, New York
The Caribbean Voice
The South Asian Times
Vishwa Hindu Parishad of America
and many more …
JazzByTheBay
06-05 01:41 AM
It's reassuring to see one's thought process wasn't entirely illogical after all.
Now, if you talk to real estate agents, you'll be told this is "the best time to buy".
jazz
here is a good point about long term housing prospects. I for one am glad that GC delay saved me from buying a house.
this is from an article
------------------------------------
Why do I think housing is in the tank for the long term?
First, I listen to people smarter than I am - a key to success from investing to recreation league baseball. When my rec team had its first losing season - after twelve consecutive great seasons (two per year) I did the logical and hired a professional coach. They were winners the next season. Ditto for analyzing stuff - and I follow Ivy Zelman and Whitney Tilson. They have been dead on about the mortgage meltdown - and see a larger one coming.
Listening to them, reading data and being objective has led me to see the key to a rebound in housing is clearing inventory - too much supply and too little demand, and since lower than five percent interest rates have not spurred buying, supply is the issue. Supply comes from the sale of existing homes, the sale of new homes, and the sale of foreclosed homes.
* Typically ten to fifteen percent of Americans sell or want to sell their home in a given year. Recent survey data shows the number is now 30%. Keep that in mind.
* New home sales are incredibly low. Market wisdom said home building stocks would rise once the new housing start rate hit a million and inventory became tight. New home starts are roughly half of that and there ain't no rebound. As the poet said, times, they be a changing.
* People are not selling, and builders are not building, not just because people are not buying - it is because prices are low and going lower and the driver here is foreclosures. Data can be found here, there and everywhere but the salient data points are a) banks are accelerating foreclosures, b) the next wave of resets of mortgages, the cause of most foreclosures, does not peak until the summer of 2011, c) banks are already sitting on more than half a million homes they have not listed for sale, and the whopper is d) the New York Times has reported that there are nineteen million empty housing units and only six million are listed for sale.
This last point, when combined with another couple of million foreclosed homes, then with desire for people wanting to sell their home as soon as they can, means excess inventory for as far as the eye can see. I originally projected housing prices would, nationally, bottom at the end of 2011 and prices would begin to pick up in mid 2012. I may have been premature. With resets peaking in mid defaults will probably peak in early Q4 2011; this means foreclosure listings will peak in mid-summer 2012, after the peak selling season, not good for managing down inventory. Assuming demand picks up - a near heroic assumption at this time as interest rates will be higher and unemployment could be the same or higher at that time - you will start to see inventory declining in a meaningful way until 2013 at the earliest.
I have focused on supply - was I too cavalier about demand? Well, that is more problematic - resets, defaults and foreclosures are fourth grade math and although the only thing I knew about housing was my own mortgage before this mess started, I can do fourth grade math and every forecast I have made about foreclosures and inventory has been right within a 30-45 day period.
Using fourth grade math as our primary tool does have value in estimating demand. Roughly 40% of demand in the peak year - 2006 - was sub-prime or near sub-prime - and these buyers are out of the market for a considerable period of time. And a very large percentage - some analysts estimate as high as a third - of all sales were for investment and second homes. Most of this demand is gone for the foreseeable future. Add tightening credit standards, recession ravaged incomes and personal balance sheets, and a new frugality and it is hard to see demand in 2013 or 2014 climbing past 50% of demand in 2006. Even if the FHA does not go bust - which it will, requiring another Treasury bailout.
Now, if you talk to real estate agents, you'll be told this is "the best time to buy".
jazz
here is a good point about long term housing prospects. I for one am glad that GC delay saved me from buying a house.
this is from an article
------------------------------------
Why do I think housing is in the tank for the long term?
First, I listen to people smarter than I am - a key to success from investing to recreation league baseball. When my rec team had its first losing season - after twelve consecutive great seasons (two per year) I did the logical and hired a professional coach. They were winners the next season. Ditto for analyzing stuff - and I follow Ivy Zelman and Whitney Tilson. They have been dead on about the mortgage meltdown - and see a larger one coming.
Listening to them, reading data and being objective has led me to see the key to a rebound in housing is clearing inventory - too much supply and too little demand, and since lower than five percent interest rates have not spurred buying, supply is the issue. Supply comes from the sale of existing homes, the sale of new homes, and the sale of foreclosed homes.
* Typically ten to fifteen percent of Americans sell or want to sell their home in a given year. Recent survey data shows the number is now 30%. Keep that in mind.
* New home sales are incredibly low. Market wisdom said home building stocks would rise once the new housing start rate hit a million and inventory became tight. New home starts are roughly half of that and there ain't no rebound. As the poet said, times, they be a changing.
* People are not selling, and builders are not building, not just because people are not buying - it is because prices are low and going lower and the driver here is foreclosures. Data can be found here, there and everywhere but the salient data points are a) banks are accelerating foreclosures, b) the next wave of resets of mortgages, the cause of most foreclosures, does not peak until the summer of 2011, c) banks are already sitting on more than half a million homes they have not listed for sale, and the whopper is d) the New York Times has reported that there are nineteen million empty housing units and only six million are listed for sale.
This last point, when combined with another couple of million foreclosed homes, then with desire for people wanting to sell their home as soon as they can, means excess inventory for as far as the eye can see. I originally projected housing prices would, nationally, bottom at the end of 2011 and prices would begin to pick up in mid 2012. I may have been premature. With resets peaking in mid defaults will probably peak in early Q4 2011; this means foreclosure listings will peak in mid-summer 2012, after the peak selling season, not good for managing down inventory. Assuming demand picks up - a near heroic assumption at this time as interest rates will be higher and unemployment could be the same or higher at that time - you will start to see inventory declining in a meaningful way until 2013 at the earliest.
I have focused on supply - was I too cavalier about demand? Well, that is more problematic - resets, defaults and foreclosures are fourth grade math and although the only thing I knew about housing was my own mortgage before this mess started, I can do fourth grade math and every forecast I have made about foreclosures and inventory has been right within a 30-45 day period.
Using fourth grade math as our primary tool does have value in estimating demand. Roughly 40% of demand in the peak year - 2006 - was sub-prime or near sub-prime - and these buyers are out of the market for a considerable period of time. And a very large percentage - some analysts estimate as high as a third - of all sales were for investment and second homes. Most of this demand is gone for the foreseeable future. Add tightening credit standards, recession ravaged incomes and personal balance sheets, and a new frugality and it is hard to see demand in 2013 or 2014 climbing past 50% of demand in 2006. Even if the FHA does not go bust - which it will, requiring another Treasury bailout.
more...
enqueued
03-22 11:39 PM
IMHO - go buy a house. We cannot freeze our lives for green card.
I bought one in the first year of my H1. I changed it last year. I am in the 9th year now. It is the *only* sensible investment I made.
Cheers.
I bought one in the first year of my H1. I changed it last year. I am in the 9th year now. It is the *only* sensible investment I made.
Cheers.
2010 2010 So, is Casey Abrams the next american idol casey abrams 2011.
StuckInTheMuck
08-05 02:10 PM
A man goes skydiving. After a fantastic free fall he pulls the rip cord to open his parachute but nothing happens. He tries everything but can't get it open.
Just then another man flies by him, going UP. The skydiver yells, "Hey, you know anything about parachutes?" The man replies, "No, you know anything about gas stoves?"
Just then another man flies by him, going UP. The skydiver yells, "Hey, you know anything about parachutes?" The man replies, "No, you know anything about gas stoves?"
more...
485Mbe4001
08-06 01:41 PM
Lets petition USCIS to scrap EB3 and send them home. Rolling_flood needs his GC real bad... We are unavailable today and will be U in 2010. you can have our 3k visa for your category.
Have you never jumped a line in your life, i bet you have.
We see it all the time, people will find ways to move ahead and so will you..nothing wrong with that. What is wrong is demeaning or ridiculing a group for you selfish needs...good luck with the law suit.. the least it will do is highlight problem our to a greater audience (Y).
Have you never jumped a line in your life, i bet you have.
We see it all the time, people will find ways to move ahead and so will you..nothing wrong with that. What is wrong is demeaning or ridiculing a group for you selfish needs...good luck with the law suit.. the least it will do is highlight problem our to a greater audience (Y).
hair American Idol#39;s Casey Abrams
xyzgc
12-24 02:19 PM
Ghazni's best-kept secret - The Indian Express
S.C. Sharma ()
April 25, 1998
Title: Ghazni's best-kept secret
Author: S.C. Sharma
Publication: The Indian Express
Date: April 25, 1998
Provocative Ghauri was the title of an editorial that appeared
on this page earlier this month. Pakistan has named its missiles
Ghauri and Ghaznavi with the specific intention of taunting
India. These worthies' claims to fame and glorification, in the
perception of the Pakistanis, lies in the fact that they were
credited with plundering and devastating north-western India time
and time again in the eleventh and twelfth centuries.
In their enthusiasm to score brownie points, the Pakistanis have
got mixed up on chronology, they have produced Ghauri before
Ghaznavi. Also, they have perversely sought to commemorate these
Afghan rulers of Turkish descent in utter disregard of the fact
that most of the territories they plundered are their own - the
North West Frontier Province, the Punjab and Sind. The men and
women they tortured, enslaved, ravished and put to the sword were
their own forebears.
If Pakistanis wish to revel in the inglorious misdeeds of
foreigners perpetrated on their own soil and on their own
ancestors, they are welcome to twirl their moustaches in euphoria
and say: " Where ignorance is bliss, it is folly to he wise."
Indians may look forward to future generations of Pakistani IRBMs
and similar sophisticated weaponry named after the likes of
Changez Khan, Nadir Shah and Ahmad Shah Abdali. Alexander the
Great and Harshavardhan also have strong claims, but they might
be disqualified for obvious reasons.
In the course of his many abortive forays into India, Mohammad
Ghori is said to have been captured once by the forces of Delhi.
But Prithviraj Chauhan, king of Delhi, magnanimously let him off.
Legend has it - and it is widely believed in India - that when
Ghori eventually succeeded in defeating Prithviraj Chauhan at the
Second Battle of Tarain in 1192, he blinded him and took him in
chains to Afghanistan along with his friend, the poet
Chandravardai.
Ghori held a grand durbar to celebrate his victory. His prize
catch, the king of Delhi, blind and a prisoner, was paraded and
publicly humiliated. Deeply incensed by the treatment meted out
to his monarch, Chandravardai took refuge to a subterfuge. He
announced that though completely blind, Prithviraj could still
hit a target guided solely by sound, and he asked for permission
for this feat to be performed.
Prithviraj Chauhan was handed a bow and arrow, and Chandravardai
sang a now-famous verse which told him of the elevation and
distance to Ghori's throne. And thus, guided solely by sound,
Prithviraj shot his arrow through Ghori.
The legend may not be entirely true, but it would be absolutely
accurate to say that even after eight centuries have elapsed,
Prithviraj is regularly subjected to indignity in the land where
he was taken as a captive. I have seen it at first hand.
Many years ago, while travelling by jeep from Kandahar to Kabul,
I had to make a night halt en route at Ghazni. At the hotel, I
learned that there was a grand mausoleum over the tomb of Sultan
Mahmud Ghaznavi near the town, and I determined to see it. A few
extra Afghanis (the local currency) helped my driver to
comprehend the necessity of making a small detour the next
morning.
The mausoleum was indeed grand -judging by local standards - with
a high, arched doorway like the Buland Darwaza. lie tomb proper
was in a cellar about four or five feet be low ground-level. It
intrigued me considerably to note that there were no steps
leading down into the tomb. Instead, a metal chain hung from the
ceiling of the cellar. I was told that I would have to hold the
chain and jump down.
I asked for the reason for this peculiar method of entry. The
caretaker was evasive at first. But after much persuasion, he
disclosed that there was another tomb at the exact spot where you
jumped down. There, the infidel king of Delhi, Prithviraj
Chauhan, lay buried.
================================================== =====================
Might I add, that the very Islam these Pakis seem to be proud of, was forced down upon them.
Most of these are descendents of forced converts to Islam!
S.C. Sharma ()
April 25, 1998
Title: Ghazni's best-kept secret
Author: S.C. Sharma
Publication: The Indian Express
Date: April 25, 1998
Provocative Ghauri was the title of an editorial that appeared
on this page earlier this month. Pakistan has named its missiles
Ghauri and Ghaznavi with the specific intention of taunting
India. These worthies' claims to fame and glorification, in the
perception of the Pakistanis, lies in the fact that they were
credited with plundering and devastating north-western India time
and time again in the eleventh and twelfth centuries.
In their enthusiasm to score brownie points, the Pakistanis have
got mixed up on chronology, they have produced Ghauri before
Ghaznavi. Also, they have perversely sought to commemorate these
Afghan rulers of Turkish descent in utter disregard of the fact
that most of the territories they plundered are their own - the
North West Frontier Province, the Punjab and Sind. The men and
women they tortured, enslaved, ravished and put to the sword were
their own forebears.
If Pakistanis wish to revel in the inglorious misdeeds of
foreigners perpetrated on their own soil and on their own
ancestors, they are welcome to twirl their moustaches in euphoria
and say: " Where ignorance is bliss, it is folly to he wise."
Indians may look forward to future generations of Pakistani IRBMs
and similar sophisticated weaponry named after the likes of
Changez Khan, Nadir Shah and Ahmad Shah Abdali. Alexander the
Great and Harshavardhan also have strong claims, but they might
be disqualified for obvious reasons.
In the course of his many abortive forays into India, Mohammad
Ghori is said to have been captured once by the forces of Delhi.
But Prithviraj Chauhan, king of Delhi, magnanimously let him off.
Legend has it - and it is widely believed in India - that when
Ghori eventually succeeded in defeating Prithviraj Chauhan at the
Second Battle of Tarain in 1192, he blinded him and took him in
chains to Afghanistan along with his friend, the poet
Chandravardai.
Ghori held a grand durbar to celebrate his victory. His prize
catch, the king of Delhi, blind and a prisoner, was paraded and
publicly humiliated. Deeply incensed by the treatment meted out
to his monarch, Chandravardai took refuge to a subterfuge. He
announced that though completely blind, Prithviraj could still
hit a target guided solely by sound, and he asked for permission
for this feat to be performed.
Prithviraj Chauhan was handed a bow and arrow, and Chandravardai
sang a now-famous verse which told him of the elevation and
distance to Ghori's throne. And thus, guided solely by sound,
Prithviraj shot his arrow through Ghori.
The legend may not be entirely true, but it would be absolutely
accurate to say that even after eight centuries have elapsed,
Prithviraj is regularly subjected to indignity in the land where
he was taken as a captive. I have seen it at first hand.
Many years ago, while travelling by jeep from Kandahar to Kabul,
I had to make a night halt en route at Ghazni. At the hotel, I
learned that there was a grand mausoleum over the tomb of Sultan
Mahmud Ghaznavi near the town, and I determined to see it. A few
extra Afghanis (the local currency) helped my driver to
comprehend the necessity of making a small detour the next
morning.
The mausoleum was indeed grand -judging by local standards - with
a high, arched doorway like the Buland Darwaza. lie tomb proper
was in a cellar about four or five feet be low ground-level. It
intrigued me considerably to note that there were no steps
leading down into the tomb. Instead, a metal chain hung from the
ceiling of the cellar. I was told that I would have to hold the
chain and jump down.
I asked for the reason for this peculiar method of entry. The
caretaker was evasive at first. But after much persuasion, he
disclosed that there was another tomb at the exact spot where you
jumped down. There, the infidel king of Delhi, Prithviraj
Chauhan, lay buried.
================================================== =====================
Might I add, that the very Islam these Pakis seem to be proud of, was forced down upon them.
Most of these are descendents of forced converts to Islam!
more...
delax
07-13 12:13 PM
I agree with that...spillover should have a releif to highly retrogressed also.Common 2001 EB3 is still hanging when will we get our solution.EAD is not a GC.This not relief.I understand unity is required here ,but how aboutEB3
.Even we need required justice.
Atleast we can address the problem.
At the risk of differing with you and inviting unflattering comments from others, but to benefit a healthy debate, I beg to differ that spill over should go to the most retrogressed at the expense of a difference in skill, training and experience level. As you probably may know, EB2 does require a different and arguably more enhanced skill, traninig and experience level than EB3.
If you beleive in the principle that in a land of meritocracy the higher skilled should have an easier path to immigrate then EB2 should always get a preference over EB3 regardless of country of birth so long as the ROW demand within the same category has been satisfied.
Understand, that this definition of EB3 and EB2 is all on paper. I am not saying that all EB2 are 'smarter' than EB3 and vice versa, but the letter/intent of the law is what it is.
Sounds harsh and heirarchical but is true. Obviously I have a vested interest in a favorable interpretation of the law and I welcome the spill over to EB2-I. This does have a flip side if you are EB3-I, but look at a few bulletins from last year/early this year where EB2-I was unavailable and EB3 still was current and/or had a cut off date for a ROW/retro country.
.Even we need required justice.
Atleast we can address the problem.
At the risk of differing with you and inviting unflattering comments from others, but to benefit a healthy debate, I beg to differ that spill over should go to the most retrogressed at the expense of a difference in skill, training and experience level. As you probably may know, EB2 does require a different and arguably more enhanced skill, traninig and experience level than EB3.
If you beleive in the principle that in a land of meritocracy the higher skilled should have an easier path to immigrate then EB2 should always get a preference over EB3 regardless of country of birth so long as the ROW demand within the same category has been satisfied.
Understand, that this definition of EB3 and EB2 is all on paper. I am not saying that all EB2 are 'smarter' than EB3 and vice versa, but the letter/intent of the law is what it is.
Sounds harsh and heirarchical but is true. Obviously I have a vested interest in a favorable interpretation of the law and I welcome the spill over to EB2-I. This does have a flip side if you are EB3-I, but look at a few bulletins from last year/early this year where EB2-I was unavailable and EB3 still was current and/or had a cut off date for a ROW/retro country.
hot American Idol 2011 – Casey
vdixit
03-24 04:31 PM
Bought a house, sold it. Changed jobs, moved cities, planning to buy a new house.
I dont think renting (flushing money down the landlords toilet) is a wise idea if you plan to live in this country for a long time.
Go for it. PLan these things according to your family's needs.
Cheers.
I dont think renting (flushing money down the landlords toilet) is a wise idea if you plan to live in this country for a long time.
Go for it. PLan these things according to your family's needs.
Cheers.
more...
house 2011 Casey Abrams#39;
Macaca
12-23 10:53 AM
Pelosi's first year as House speaker marked by little change on war (http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/12/23/MNOUU26C5.DTL&tsp=1) By Zachary Coile | SF Chronicle, Dec 23, 2007
The last day of the House's 2007 session last week summed up the turbulence of Nancy Pelosi's history-making first year as House speaker.
In the morning, she beamed a wide smile as she stood beside President Bush while he signed an energy bill with the first major increase in fuel economy standards in 30 years.
But by Wednesday afternoon, her party was facing two of its biggest defeats. To keep the alternative minimum tax from hitting 20 million Americans next year, Democrats had to abandon their pledge not to pass any legislation that increased the deficit.
Then Pelosi, whose party took control of Congress pledging to change course in Iraq, watched the House approve $70 billion in war funding, part of a budget deal that avoided a government shutdown. Members of her own party denounced it as a capitulation to the White House.
"The war in Iraq is the biggest disappointment for us, the inability to stop the war," Pelosi told reporters in a group interview in her ceremonial office just hours before the war vote. She quickly pegged the blame on congressional Republicans.
The Democrats' failure to shift the war's direction, their No. 1 priority for the year, has eclipsed many of the party's successes on other issues, including raising the minimum wage for the first time in a decade and passing the strongest ethics and lobbying reforms since Watergate.
And Bush, despite his lame-duck status, outflanked Democrats in the end-of-year budget fight - forcing them to accept his number, $555 billion in domestic spending, and funding for Iraq - simply by refusing to yield.
Asked about the setbacks last week, Pelosi, as she has all year, flashed her most optimistic smile and refused to be drawn into the criticism.
"Almost everything we've done has been historic," she said.
But if Pelosi is smiling, so are Republicans. They began the year defeated and demoralized. But they have since shown surprising unity, backing the president on the war and finding new purpose in blocking Democrats' spending initiatives.
"We've stood up to them every step of the way," House Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, said last week.
The tense mood among Democrats in the session's final weeks was a marked contrast from the festive first weeks of the new Congress, when Pelosi was sworn in as the nation's first female speaker, surrounded by children on the House floor. She promised to lead Congress in a new direction.
Democrats took off on a legislative sprint in which they quickly approved their "Six for '06" agenda including raising the minimum wage, cutting interest rates on student loans, backing federally funded embryonic stem cell research, and revoking tax breaks for oil companies.
But the bills bogged down in the Senate, where the Democrats' 51-49 majority is so thin it allowed Republicans to determine what would be passed. Democrats have struggled to get the 60 votes needed to overcome filibusters, which are now an almost daily experience in the Senate.
"Pelosi suffered the same ailment that (former Republican House Speaker) Newt Gingrich suffered from when he became speaker: Senate-itis," said Norman Ornstein, a congressional scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. "A lot of what the House accomplished this year either sat in the Senate or got eviscerated by the Senate. What you are left with is not nearly as robust as what you started with."
Even the energy bill, the Democrats' crowning achievement, was stripped of a broad tax package and a renewable electricity standard that would have pushed the nation toward wind and solar power. Still, the fuel economy piece alone is expected to save 2.3 million barrels of oil a day by 2020 - more than the United States currently imports from the Persian Gulf.
Pelosi had to make some painful trade-offs. To get the minimum wage hike signed, Democrats had to attach it to a $120 billion war spending bill.
Other elements of her agenda fell victim to Bush's veto pen. Congress twice passed a bill with bipartisan support to expand the state children's health insurance program to cover 4 million more children. Bush twice vetoed it, forcing Democrats to settle for an 18-month extension of the current program.
Pelosi and her Senate counterpart, Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., held countless votes on war measures setting timetables for the withdrawal of U.S. troops and other restrictions on Bush's policy. But their strategy counted on Republicans switching sides - and very few did.
"I didn't foresee that," Pelosi acknowledged. "We thought they would reflect the wishes and views of their constituents."
Some critics called the assumption naive. Anti-war groups have urged her to use Congress' power of the purse to simply cut off funds for the war, but Pelosi opposes the move, which many Democrats fear would be seen as undermining the troops. Instead the party has pushed for a "responsible redeployment" - meaning funding the war, but with strings attached.
In October, Pelosi's ally and the House's top appropriator, David Obey, D-Wis., said Democrats would draw a line in the sand: They would refuse to pass any more war funding without a timeline for withdrawal. But by last week, with the budget impasse threatening to shut down the government, Democrats dropped the strategy.
Rep. Lynn Woolsey, D-Petaluma, a founding member of the Out of Iraq Caucus, said the Democrats' mistake was not to force the threat to deny funds earlier in the year.
"I wish she could have been bolder," Woolsey said, while acknowledging that Pelosi had to mediate between competing views in the caucus. "If we had started that earlier, we could have built on it until it reached a crescendo, because it's what the American people want."
The Democrats were left in a weak bargaining position at the end of the year. They needed to pass 11 spending bills, but Republicans and Bush demanded the $70 billion for the war in return. The president also held firm on his spending limits. If the impasse led to a government shutdown, Pelosi knew her party would receive much of the blame. So she agreed to the deal, with the concession that Democrats were able to preserve money for their priorities, including home heating aid for the poor and health care for veterans.
"We made it very clear months ago we were not going to shut down the government," said Rep. George Miller, D-Martinez, one of Pelosi's top lieutenants. "Tragically, that put the president in the driver's seat."
Miller said the fight over the war has obscured the progress Democrats made on other fronts, including cutting interest rates on loans for college students and passing a huge increase in veterans' benefits. He said Pelosi worked tirelessly to get the energy bill over the finish line.
"At the beginning of the year, people said we had no chance of getting an energy bill," Miller said. "This was a tour de force for her."
Pelosi also showed she was willing to buck some of her party's most powerful members to get her way. She went head-to-head with Rep. John Dingell, D-Mich., Detroit automakers' top ally, over raising fuel economy standards - and won. She pushed through an ethics reform bill that her friend Rep. John Murtha, D-Pa., called "total crap."
"Some of her colleagues when they took back Congress said, 'That reform message worked to get us elected, but now it's our turn.' " Ornstein said. "That has not been her attitude and her approach, and I give her credit for that."
Pelosi had clumsy moments, too. She pushed hard for a resolution denouncing Turkey's mass killings of Armenians during World War I as genocide, only to reverse course when it sparked a diplomatic fight, with Turkey threatening to reduce logistical support to U.S. troops in Iraq.
Republicans say she has reneged on a promise to run a more open House. Following a pattern set by the GOP when it ran the House for 12 years, Democrats have often rammed bills through, giving Republicans few opportunities to amend them.
"It's hard to work together when you're not even invited into the room," said Rep. Kay Granger, R-Texas.
But Pelosi's supporters say Republicans haven't been willing to compromise and have mostly tried to block Democrats from racking up accomplishments.
"The Republicans have frustrated us because they want to run a negative campaign saying the Democrats didn't accomplish anything," said Rep. Henry Waxman, D-Los Angeles.
The bickering in Congress, over the war and other issues, has taken a toll. When Democrats took power, Congress had an approval rating of 35 percent, but it's since dipped into the low 20s, according to the Gallup poll.
Pelosi is already crafting a strategy for next year, when the presidential race is likely to take some of the spotlight off Congress. With the war debate at an impasse, she's planning to push a series of measures on health care, the economy, the mortgage crisis and global warming.
If Democrats can't win on these issues, at the very least they can draw sharp distinctions with Republicans leading up to the fall elections, she said.
"One of the reasons we were able to be successful with the energy bill is that this is something we took to the American people," she said. "That is what we have to do next. We have to go public with many of these issues."
The last day of the House's 2007 session last week summed up the turbulence of Nancy Pelosi's history-making first year as House speaker.
In the morning, she beamed a wide smile as she stood beside President Bush while he signed an energy bill with the first major increase in fuel economy standards in 30 years.
But by Wednesday afternoon, her party was facing two of its biggest defeats. To keep the alternative minimum tax from hitting 20 million Americans next year, Democrats had to abandon their pledge not to pass any legislation that increased the deficit.
Then Pelosi, whose party took control of Congress pledging to change course in Iraq, watched the House approve $70 billion in war funding, part of a budget deal that avoided a government shutdown. Members of her own party denounced it as a capitulation to the White House.
"The war in Iraq is the biggest disappointment for us, the inability to stop the war," Pelosi told reporters in a group interview in her ceremonial office just hours before the war vote. She quickly pegged the blame on congressional Republicans.
The Democrats' failure to shift the war's direction, their No. 1 priority for the year, has eclipsed many of the party's successes on other issues, including raising the minimum wage for the first time in a decade and passing the strongest ethics and lobbying reforms since Watergate.
And Bush, despite his lame-duck status, outflanked Democrats in the end-of-year budget fight - forcing them to accept his number, $555 billion in domestic spending, and funding for Iraq - simply by refusing to yield.
Asked about the setbacks last week, Pelosi, as she has all year, flashed her most optimistic smile and refused to be drawn into the criticism.
"Almost everything we've done has been historic," she said.
But if Pelosi is smiling, so are Republicans. They began the year defeated and demoralized. But they have since shown surprising unity, backing the president on the war and finding new purpose in blocking Democrats' spending initiatives.
"We've stood up to them every step of the way," House Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, said last week.
The tense mood among Democrats in the session's final weeks was a marked contrast from the festive first weeks of the new Congress, when Pelosi was sworn in as the nation's first female speaker, surrounded by children on the House floor. She promised to lead Congress in a new direction.
Democrats took off on a legislative sprint in which they quickly approved their "Six for '06" agenda including raising the minimum wage, cutting interest rates on student loans, backing federally funded embryonic stem cell research, and revoking tax breaks for oil companies.
But the bills bogged down in the Senate, where the Democrats' 51-49 majority is so thin it allowed Republicans to determine what would be passed. Democrats have struggled to get the 60 votes needed to overcome filibusters, which are now an almost daily experience in the Senate.
"Pelosi suffered the same ailment that (former Republican House Speaker) Newt Gingrich suffered from when he became speaker: Senate-itis," said Norman Ornstein, a congressional scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. "A lot of what the House accomplished this year either sat in the Senate or got eviscerated by the Senate. What you are left with is not nearly as robust as what you started with."
Even the energy bill, the Democrats' crowning achievement, was stripped of a broad tax package and a renewable electricity standard that would have pushed the nation toward wind and solar power. Still, the fuel economy piece alone is expected to save 2.3 million barrels of oil a day by 2020 - more than the United States currently imports from the Persian Gulf.
Pelosi had to make some painful trade-offs. To get the minimum wage hike signed, Democrats had to attach it to a $120 billion war spending bill.
Other elements of her agenda fell victim to Bush's veto pen. Congress twice passed a bill with bipartisan support to expand the state children's health insurance program to cover 4 million more children. Bush twice vetoed it, forcing Democrats to settle for an 18-month extension of the current program.
Pelosi and her Senate counterpart, Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., held countless votes on war measures setting timetables for the withdrawal of U.S. troops and other restrictions on Bush's policy. But their strategy counted on Republicans switching sides - and very few did.
"I didn't foresee that," Pelosi acknowledged. "We thought they would reflect the wishes and views of their constituents."
Some critics called the assumption naive. Anti-war groups have urged her to use Congress' power of the purse to simply cut off funds for the war, but Pelosi opposes the move, which many Democrats fear would be seen as undermining the troops. Instead the party has pushed for a "responsible redeployment" - meaning funding the war, but with strings attached.
In October, Pelosi's ally and the House's top appropriator, David Obey, D-Wis., said Democrats would draw a line in the sand: They would refuse to pass any more war funding without a timeline for withdrawal. But by last week, with the budget impasse threatening to shut down the government, Democrats dropped the strategy.
Rep. Lynn Woolsey, D-Petaluma, a founding member of the Out of Iraq Caucus, said the Democrats' mistake was not to force the threat to deny funds earlier in the year.
"I wish she could have been bolder," Woolsey said, while acknowledging that Pelosi had to mediate between competing views in the caucus. "If we had started that earlier, we could have built on it until it reached a crescendo, because it's what the American people want."
The Democrats were left in a weak bargaining position at the end of the year. They needed to pass 11 spending bills, but Republicans and Bush demanded the $70 billion for the war in return. The president also held firm on his spending limits. If the impasse led to a government shutdown, Pelosi knew her party would receive much of the blame. So she agreed to the deal, with the concession that Democrats were able to preserve money for their priorities, including home heating aid for the poor and health care for veterans.
"We made it very clear months ago we were not going to shut down the government," said Rep. George Miller, D-Martinez, one of Pelosi's top lieutenants. "Tragically, that put the president in the driver's seat."
Miller said the fight over the war has obscured the progress Democrats made on other fronts, including cutting interest rates on loans for college students and passing a huge increase in veterans' benefits. He said Pelosi worked tirelessly to get the energy bill over the finish line.
"At the beginning of the year, people said we had no chance of getting an energy bill," Miller said. "This was a tour de force for her."
Pelosi also showed she was willing to buck some of her party's most powerful members to get her way. She went head-to-head with Rep. John Dingell, D-Mich., Detroit automakers' top ally, over raising fuel economy standards - and won. She pushed through an ethics reform bill that her friend Rep. John Murtha, D-Pa., called "total crap."
"Some of her colleagues when they took back Congress said, 'That reform message worked to get us elected, but now it's our turn.' " Ornstein said. "That has not been her attitude and her approach, and I give her credit for that."
Pelosi had clumsy moments, too. She pushed hard for a resolution denouncing Turkey's mass killings of Armenians during World War I as genocide, only to reverse course when it sparked a diplomatic fight, with Turkey threatening to reduce logistical support to U.S. troops in Iraq.
Republicans say she has reneged on a promise to run a more open House. Following a pattern set by the GOP when it ran the House for 12 years, Democrats have often rammed bills through, giving Republicans few opportunities to amend them.
"It's hard to work together when you're not even invited into the room," said Rep. Kay Granger, R-Texas.
But Pelosi's supporters say Republicans haven't been willing to compromise and have mostly tried to block Democrats from racking up accomplishments.
"The Republicans have frustrated us because they want to run a negative campaign saying the Democrats didn't accomplish anything," said Rep. Henry Waxman, D-Los Angeles.
The bickering in Congress, over the war and other issues, has taken a toll. When Democrats took power, Congress had an approval rating of 35 percent, but it's since dipped into the low 20s, according to the Gallup poll.
Pelosi is already crafting a strategy for next year, when the presidential race is likely to take some of the spotlight off Congress. With the war debate at an impasse, she's planning to push a series of measures on health care, the economy, the mortgage crisis and global warming.
If Democrats can't win on these issues, at the very least they can draw sharp distinctions with Republicans leading up to the fall elections, she said.
"One of the reasons we were able to be successful with the energy bill is that this is something we took to the American people," she said. "That is what we have to do next. We have to go public with many of these issues."
tattoo Casey Abrams American Idol
unitednations
08-03 01:52 PM
Hi United Nation,
If AC21 is so difficult to use what about EAD?? Is all these apply to EAD too??
-M
No; it is not hard to use.
However; the way people use labor substitution, future base employment, labors in fast processing states, going from consulting companies to "permanent jobs"; job descriptions not matching, companies getting ability to pay queries on approved cases; uscis changing their interpretations of laws/regulations, people getting off h-1b after six years.... all of these things add a lot of complexities.
If AC21 is so difficult to use what about EAD?? Is all these apply to EAD too??
-M
No; it is not hard to use.
However; the way people use labor substitution, future base employment, labors in fast processing states, going from consulting companies to "permanent jobs"; job descriptions not matching, companies getting ability to pay queries on approved cases; uscis changing their interpretations of laws/regulations, people getting off h-1b after six years.... all of these things add a lot of complexities.
more...
pictures Casey Abrams American Idol
number30
03-24 11:37 AM
UN - I don't think people who indulge in fraud or use wrong route, go to Senators or Congressmen - rather they want to stay unnoticed. Most people who lobby - lobby for a better system.
No one is taking on or poking at USCIS.
On another note - what is permanent job? There is absolutely no such thing called future job - ie job that will come into place after 5 or 10 years. A permanent job is a job which is permanent at the time of employment.
When we talk about good faith employment - it is the relationship that exists during the terms of employment.
While your analysis makes sense - we really never know what is happening behind the scenes.
What the consulting companies( Including Mine) are working like placement cell holding the stock of consultants. This is being questioned by the USCIS. They are understanding the mode of the operations. These stock does not have any usage unless they get some order. This is question was getting raised in H1B RFEs since last two-three years. With H1B you can escape with contracts between companies. But the concern with green card is will they accept such kind of agreements as proof of an permanent job? It will come to nature of the business of the company.
(sorry for the Language )
No one is taking on or poking at USCIS.
On another note - what is permanent job? There is absolutely no such thing called future job - ie job that will come into place after 5 or 10 years. A permanent job is a job which is permanent at the time of employment.
When we talk about good faith employment - it is the relationship that exists during the terms of employment.
While your analysis makes sense - we really never know what is happening behind the scenes.
What the consulting companies( Including Mine) are working like placement cell holding the stock of consultants. This is being questioned by the USCIS. They are understanding the mode of the operations. These stock does not have any usage unless they get some order. This is question was getting raised in H1B RFEs since last two-three years. With H1B you can escape with contracts between companies. But the concern with green card is will they accept such kind of agreements as proof of an permanent job? It will come to nature of the business of the company.
(sorry for the Language )
dresses American Idol - Casey Abrams
Green4Ev1
06-25 04:09 PM
Since most comments in here are against buying a house, I'd like to show one positive/lucky experience.
I bought my house in 2003 while I was on Labor stage, RIR.
I bought the house for the benefit of my kids as well as investment. We needed a bigger house as my kids grew and all my kids' friends lived in their own houses.
I chose the house in the best school zone from the area.
Luckily my house price went up about 50% since I bought, even 5% from last year.
I live in one of those few cities in the nation where the price went up.
And we got our GC last year, august.
Yes, Very lucky.
Well, sometimes, you just have to take a chance, and stop calculating and see what happens.
I bought my house in 2003 while I was on Labor stage, RIR.
I bought the house for the benefit of my kids as well as investment. We needed a bigger house as my kids grew and all my kids' friends lived in their own houses.
I chose the house in the best school zone from the area.
Luckily my house price went up about 50% since I bought, even 5% from last year.
I live in one of those few cities in the nation where the price went up.
And we got our GC last year, august.
Yes, Very lucky.
Well, sometimes, you just have to take a chance, and stop calculating and see what happens.
more...
makeup American Idol 2011 Top 11
ita
01-04 01:56 AM
Please don't kid yourself ...all these points seem so shallow that there's no way one could read too much into it. I find this exchange meaningful though it took me 4 posts. Please keep playing your game.I think you proved the point that I initially raised.
Like someone pointed out before you can't wake up someone that's pretending sleeping.
Thank you.
I see you have put arrows in disparate points that I had made. I think you are reading way too much in it if you see circular logic, or even a link, in those disjointed points above.
There is a lot that has been said on this thread that I agree with. That is not 'conceding points'. Its just agreeing with something.
Like someone pointed out before you can't wake up someone that's pretending sleeping.
Thank you.
I see you have put arrows in disparate points that I had made. I think you are reading way too much in it if you see circular logic, or even a link, in those disjointed points above.
There is a lot that has been said on this thread that I agree with. That is not 'conceding points'. Its just agreeing with something.
girlfriend #39;American Idol#39;: Casey Abrams,
chanduv23
04-13 01:57 PM
There is a gray area here. You can believe it is legal because it is nowhere mentioned that it is illegal. The certifying officer may believe that it is illegal because it is nowhere mentioned that it is legal.
This is interesting actually. Does LCA petition have a column saying it is Salary or percentage?
The way job offers go out is after companies do a math on the value you add to the company. Every h1b LCA petition has a salary mentioned that can be a range also ie $55 per hour and above etc....
Percentages or kickbacks are something that is between employer and employee and has nothing to do with Certifying officer - maybe I am missing something here
This is interesting actually. Does LCA petition have a column saying it is Salary or percentage?
The way job offers go out is after companies do a math on the value you add to the company. Every h1b LCA petition has a salary mentioned that can be a range also ie $55 per hour and above etc....
Percentages or kickbacks are something that is between employer and employee and has nothing to do with Certifying officer - maybe I am missing something here
hairstyles #39;American Idol#39; contestants
rvr_jcop
03-26 08:37 PM
With regards to h-1b processing; if you file an h-1b and you are silent as to the work location on the i-129 and you get an lca for your h-1b office location and then USCIS gives you an rfe for a client letter.
You get a client letter in a different location and did not have an lca for that location prior to the receipt date of the h-1b filing then USCIS will deny the h-1b saying that it wasn't approvable when filed. Therefore, because of this USCIS is essentially saying that you are only getting h-1b approval for the work location specified in the petition when it was filed. It does not include a blanket approval to work at multiple locations.
Therefore; one should always amend the h-1b for different work location. Everytime you amend; you have to pay uscis/lawyer fees and are at risk of getting rfe everytime.
With regards to greencard. You don't have to work at the location required in the labor until the greencard gets approved. Most labors state job location is "various unanticipated locations across usa". If it has this statement then you are covered and don't have to locate to the office of the company; you can work in any location.
If there is not such an annotation in the labor then to make it 100% legal you should go and work in the location covered by the labor. However, as the baltimore decision stated; you can use ac21 for a different locaiton with same employer. Therefore, if 485 is pending more then six months and greencard gets approved; you have essentially used ac21 without even knowing it.
I do know a few cases where attorney did labor in location of where persons client was located. However, if person has shifted to another location then it would be impossible to justify it legally that you will go back there when greencard gets approved because that job would no longer exist.
There are a lot of complexities involved in this. It just goes to show that on a whim; uscis can do a lot of things to make peoples lives miserable.
Thank you UN for wonderful explanation. You hit the nail to the point. Usually USCIS sends these work location queries at the time of 140 processing. I am surprised we are seeing these at I-485 stage. Is there any recent memo related to this by USCIS that you know of?
You get a client letter in a different location and did not have an lca for that location prior to the receipt date of the h-1b filing then USCIS will deny the h-1b saying that it wasn't approvable when filed. Therefore, because of this USCIS is essentially saying that you are only getting h-1b approval for the work location specified in the petition when it was filed. It does not include a blanket approval to work at multiple locations.
Therefore; one should always amend the h-1b for different work location. Everytime you amend; you have to pay uscis/lawyer fees and are at risk of getting rfe everytime.
With regards to greencard. You don't have to work at the location required in the labor until the greencard gets approved. Most labors state job location is "various unanticipated locations across usa". If it has this statement then you are covered and don't have to locate to the office of the company; you can work in any location.
If there is not such an annotation in the labor then to make it 100% legal you should go and work in the location covered by the labor. However, as the baltimore decision stated; you can use ac21 for a different locaiton with same employer. Therefore, if 485 is pending more then six months and greencard gets approved; you have essentially used ac21 without even knowing it.
I do know a few cases where attorney did labor in location of where persons client was located. However, if person has shifted to another location then it would be impossible to justify it legally that you will go back there when greencard gets approved because that job would no longer exist.
There are a lot of complexities involved in this. It just goes to show that on a whim; uscis can do a lot of things to make peoples lives miserable.
Thank you UN for wonderful explanation. You hit the nail to the point. Usually USCIS sends these work location queries at the time of 140 processing. I am surprised we are seeing these at I-485 stage. Is there any recent memo related to this by USCIS that you know of?
bharol
01-06 11:26 PM
Exactly, its about how many people care about the issue. If terrorists kill innocent civilians, first thing they'll say is "Islamic Terrorism". Don't tell me media around the world didn't use this term. Anything and everything blamed on religion and people following the religion.
There is a reason for that. The organizations which claim responsibility for such attacks have names like Jaish-e-Mohammad, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Deccan Mujahiddin... Now I don't have to explain the meanings of their names. Then they say they are doing Jihad!
Why would somebody not call them Islamic terrorists?
Now that does not mean all followers of Islam are Islamic-terrorists.
There is a reason for that. The organizations which claim responsibility for such attacks have names like Jaish-e-Mohammad, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Deccan Mujahiddin... Now I don't have to explain the meanings of their names. Then they say they are doing Jihad!
Why would somebody not call them Islamic terrorists?
Now that does not mean all followers of Islam are Islamic-terrorists.
Refugee_New
01-07 09:28 AM
Hey Refugee_New, why the hell you gave me red ("what other site - refugee!").
Go ahead & post it on the some news websites THAT ARE NOT RELATED WITH EB ISSUES. THIS FORM IS ONLY FOR EMPLOYMENT BASED IMMIGRATION RELATED ISSUES PERIOD & END OF DISCUSSION.
As I already said it is very sad to hear innocent kids got killed. Opening a thread here & giving your baseless comments will not going to help the ppl suffering over there so why not you go over there and help them out by fighting with Israeli forces instead of whining here.
GCBatman, i didn't give you red. Let me know how to give red or green. I never tried this before.
Go ahead & post it on the some news websites THAT ARE NOT RELATED WITH EB ISSUES. THIS FORM IS ONLY FOR EMPLOYMENT BASED IMMIGRATION RELATED ISSUES PERIOD & END OF DISCUSSION.
As I already said it is very sad to hear innocent kids got killed. Opening a thread here & giving your baseless comments will not going to help the ppl suffering over there so why not you go over there and help them out by fighting with Israeli forces instead of whining here.
GCBatman, i didn't give you red. Let me know how to give red or green. I never tried this before.
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