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  • suavesandeep
    06-26 03:05 PM
    Would you share what calculator are you using.

    I used one here:
    Mortgage Calculator - Bankrate.com (http://www.bankrate.com/calculators/mortgages/mortgage-calculator.aspx)

    Loan Amount: 600K (Note much less than million dollars)
    Period: 30 years fixed
    Interest Rate: 5% (On the lower side using historical averages)
    Monthly Payment: 3220.93

    Total Interest Paid across 30 years: 559,534.71

    In general the thumb rule is across 30 years you will always pay interest which is approx equal to the principal you signed up for.

    Am i missing something here ?



    Yes its not clear cut but lets replace your X, Y and others with numbers

    Suppose your rent is 1500$ a month

    You pay 540,000 $ in 30 years

    so your point 1 - the interest payment is always going to be less than rent if you look over the 30 year term of mortgage since there is no way to pay 540,000 dollars in interest in 30 years looking at the amortization table unless you are buying a million dollar plus house. ( I assumed 5 % rate of interest )





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  • sanju
    12-18 01:09 PM
    the main message of the bible is forgiveness

    And what do bible say about people who do not believe in bible. How can the creator who created everything, including "believers" of your faith, and "non-believers" of your faith, how can such a creator who knows nothing but giving, how can that fellow say - "non-believers" go to hell. Don't you think that was purposefully put in there by Saint Paul, or someone who showed up after him. That shallow view cannot be coming from a supereme being, its just not possible.


    and the sacrifice that God made in order to save mankind. the person the bible portrays is the man who wanted to sacrifice his life for all of us. history proves that to be true. I don't think any king would want to change that message.
    God hates evil, and both God and evil cannot exist together. Man is doomed to eternal death because of sin. but God loved us that none of us should perish, and that's how he gave us a way to escape death (not mortal). that is through the great sacrifice He made for mankind.

    Book of Romans 5:8
    "But God demonstrates His own love toward us, in that while we were yet sinners, Christ died for us."

    Your version of history and the way you have been tought histroy proves that to be true. And just like the other fellow who said that books of hindu religion is not doctored, you come up with reasons who books or your faith are not doctored, which is not surprising. Why is it called "King James Bible" if King James did not create his won version? Why are there so many versions of bibles qurans, Geetas? Which version of each of those books is correct? Let me guess, the answer is, the one that I believe, or the one that was handed to me by my parents. And thats just too much bull, you know....

    Some of the parts of each holy book emanates view of supreme being, but then there are others which preach hate. All that I am saying is, be critical when you read yuor book, and question everything that it has to tell you. Don't live in medival period and follow these books blindly, you are an educated man, for christ sake. Even Christ or Allah or Krishna or whomever you beleiev in, even they will not want you to follow a twisted belief system in their name, would they? Just think.... So why is it not your responsibility to critically think about that is being taught in those books is not some form of hate in the name of religion.

    First thing that all religions do is, tell you that you r are a sinner, because just like George Bush, every religion works on the principle of fear. No. I was not born as a sinner, no one was. Everyone else is an extraordinary creation of creator created out of love and giving. And anyone telling you that we are sinner is simply abhomination of the creation of the creator.

    Say you are a computer programmer. The question is - Why are you a computer programmer? Because you applied your mind to become a computer programmer, and thats why you are now called - computer programmer. Now say you worship the true nature of GOD, which is not but love, none of this sinner and kafir stuff, ok. Now you apply your mind towards God, what will you become, and reflection of god itself. And during a period of time people will identify you with the object to which you applied your mind. I believe Jesus, Buddha, Krishna, Mohammad, Guru Nanak, were great visionary souls and applied their mind to GOD such that their coming generations identify them as GODs, just as I applied my mind to become a computer programmer and now I am identified as computer program. This applies to every so called "GOD" in every religion.

    Ray of light from Sun is a medium for light & warmth, but no one prays the ray of light, everyone prays the Sun becuase thats the source. Likewise, all the great souls who showed up from time to time, they are like rays of Sun light, showing us the direction to the Sun, but in this metaphor, mankind started praying the ray of sun light instead of the Sun and formed all those different religions based on the ray of sunlight. And now everyone fights with each other over whose ray of sunlight is better. Just imagine how ignorant and foolish this behavior is?

    I don't think that every word of bible is the word of Jesus Christ. I don;t think that every word of Quran is the word of Mohammed. I don't thin that every word of Geeta is the word of Krishna. If there was a way for these great souls to appear before us in this age and talk to people who "appear" to follow them, these great souls will tell their so called "followers" to stop this nonsense in their name.


    .





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  • gapala
    12-24 08:54 AM
    Well said Sanju.

    These are those age old arguments that they lay down to justify evil acts. its rediculous





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  • file485
    07-08 04:35 PM
    thanks UN..

    we don't mean to bug you..!!

    but sometimes these r so scary..it feels we r better off being illegal in this country..

    all this is just plain BS..when we r paying so much in taxes and SS in this country..we r still chopped and diced like vegetables ...

    btw..on the same note since you r here..does the 'out of status' count only after the last entry in to thr country..or it is still scrutinised right from the time you land into the US..

    pls post..



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  • chanduv23
    04-12 05:09 PM
    Many/most of us here have worked like crazy dogs most of lives, followed the rules, and played by the book. "Everyone" does not have your cavalier attitude towards truth.

    My problem is not with consultants or nurses or doctors or magicians or whoever else is in line. My problem is with those who claim to be legal aliens but who routinely break the rules (by indulging in kickback schemes like splitting their salary with their employer).

    IV is a community of/for legal aliens wanting to become legal immigrants. Rule-breakers and others don't belong here; just because one hasn't been caught cheating the system doesn't mean one is legal.

    On a side note
    There are serious health implications working on a sedentry job like software coding for long hours. You will notice it after you are 40. No company will give you your health back.
    I recently had a big conversation with the doctor about this when i went for my phhysicals. Doctors say the software engineer lifestyle where people work long long hours is not a good lifestyle. I explained to him that it is because people's green cards is tied up and they do it by compulsion.
    I have seen some people working continuously for days , weeks , months together. I have done that too. It is not a good thing to do. health is wealth and one must take care of it first.

    This is what happens in India where a lot of outsourcing is going on. Young engineers getting high pay and expected to work long hours "this seems to be an unofficial protocol" and thats how the whole industry has turned out to be.

    Here you have your weekends - save your weekends for yoruself. Go out enjoy. If your office calls ur cell switch it off or keep it on vibrate. Go and golf, watch broad way shows, play tennis , etc..

    I do not wish to deviate from the original topic. But just wanted to let you know that "Your health is your first priority"





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  • lfwf
    08-06 04:13 PM
    Are you pascal with a different ID by any chance? :), I don’t know, I thought I saw pascal id above the previous post before the id changed to Ifwf

    Don't know how you saw that :-)
    I wish, but no! How do you change the id on a post anyway? And if you delete a post it should show as a deleted post shouldn't it? If you know, share the secret, might be of some use :-)))

    ps: Might involve a serious gender change too!



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  • sledge_hammer
    03-24 12:26 PM
    I have full sympathy for anyone that has not broken any laws including OP and 'leoindiano". If I had the powers to approve green cards, I would give them away to him and his brother!

    The problem here is no one (consulting company/employee) bothered to make sure that a person on H-1B was allowed to do consulting. I'm not sure who dropped the ball - companies, employees, or the immigration lawyers. But someone should have raised a flag when the type of job was really a temp job. Unfortunately that did not happen.

    Now that the damage has been done, and USCIS is coming after such folks, they are upset that it is happening to them. Again, do note that I am not saying the consultants themselves are less skilled than anyone with FT job. I'm just saying that at the time they got into consulting they did not think of the various consequences. Maybe because no one ever thought that working at different locations, benching, temp nature of the jobs were all against H-1B visa rules?

    You get my point?

    face it as long as the economy is tanking this is going to be an ongoing debate. Everything goes thorugh stages of high and low and we are now expereincing the lows of having the h1b's.

    Sledge While your points are valid, remember folks do not choose consulting (nor do students) as a first choice but I have friends who were employed without any issues directly with client companies who in the midst of recession decide to fire everyone. What are you options if your GC is denied because the company declared bankruptcy? How do you justify to yourself staying with the employer when they files you under Eb3 category when you a master's degree holder from one of the 10 best universities in the US? What are the employee choices here, just pack up and leave? leave houses, friends and people you stayed with many years.

    You think they haven't searched for full time positions with other companies only to be turned back? or worse case restart the entire GC process and forgo the 6+ years?

    And the experiences I am relating are from the 2001 recession. I have already seen history repeat itself now but my more fear is that tomorrow USCIS will unfortunately hit the person who followed all the rules After all how is the USCIS knowing which are the good companies and which are bad? These very things are happening and very much can happen to you as well. Do not sit on a high perch and think it will not trickle down to me





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  • Macaca
    12-28 06:45 PM
    �We hope that India will be the number one investor in Indonesia' (http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/interview/article1011658.ece) Interview with Mari Elka Pangestu, Indonesian Minister of Trade | The Hindu

    With politics taking precedence over �economics and trade� and India entering into a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the ASEAN bloc, commerce has become the new buzz word in intra-regional relations. India's ties with Indonesia, one of the biggest Asian democracies along with India, have grown stronger over the years. The Indonesian Minister of Trade, Mari Elka Pangestu, recently in India, talked to Sujay Mehdudia, about trade relations, commonalities among the two countries and giving a new fillip to the relationship during next month's visit of Indonesian President H. Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono to New Delhi.

    How would you define the relationship between India and Indonesia?

    India and Indonesia enjoy a very warm and �strategic partnership� in the region and this has grown by leaps and bounds over the last few years. The trade between the two nations has outgrown the set targets well before schedule showing the strong bond the two nations enjoy. In 2005, both the countries set a target of achieving $10 billion trade turnover by 2010 against $4 billion at that time. We have been able to achieve that target in 2008 and hope to end the 2010 fiscal with $12 billion trade turnover which speaks volumes about the complimentary nature of our people and economies.

    How do you see this graph progressing in future and what in your opinion should be done to give a new dimension to this relationship?

    As the global economy is still in the recovery stage and the Western countries are still grappling with various economic issues, this provides a huge opportunity to both India and Indonesia to capitalise on the situation. Both the nations need to have a more diversified basket of goods and services to take the economic partnership between both the countries to a new level. We need to set up more institutional mechanisms for Business to Business and Business to Government negotiations. As I mentioned, India-Indonesia trade has already touched $10 billion during January-October 2010 and could cross $12 billon by the year end. This target is likely to be doubled to $24 billion when President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono visits India to be the chief guest at the Republic Day Parade on January 26 and also holds talks with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.

    Although, the trade among the two economies has grown tremendously, people to people exchanges and international transport linkage remain an area of concern. What is your take on that?

    There have been some issues pertaining to direct links between the two countries but negotiations are on with the Indian counterparts to link Jakarta directly with major Indian cities. Tourism is another major area where Indonesia has much to offer to the ever growing outgoing number of Indian tourists. Efforts are on to have direct flights from Jakarta to New Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore, Chennai and Kolkata. It is important that with growing trade, both the nations should provide easy access to their people and the business community at large.

    What are the potential areas of investment that Indonesia could offer to the Indian business community?

    There is an exponential growth in inter-connectivity in Indonesia and this is a huge potential market for Indian investors in this sector. Indonesia offers huge potential and opportunity in the automobile sector, textiles, engineering products � heavy machinery being a good area for cooperation � electronics, consumer products, processed and manufactured goods, pharmaceuticals, creative industry, mining, agro-based products, oil and gas, mining support services, rubber goods, infrastructure and real estate. We hope that India will be the number one investor in Indonesia in the next few years.

    How do view the visit of the Indonesian President to India?

    My visit to India is aimed at a follow-up on a number of bilateral issues as part of efforts to improve trade between the two countries and to prepare for the visit of the Indonesian President to India in early 2011. Mr. Yudhoyono would be in India to enhance the two countries' economic partnership. The joint study group on the Indonesia-India Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement has already submitted its report and a final view is likely to be taken during the visit of the Indonesian President. A number of important bilateral economic and strategic agreements are likely to be signed during Mr. Yudhoyono's visit. We need to take it further to have a far-reaching and wide spectrum agreement for giving a new thrust to future bilateral trade, economic development and investment cooperation between the two countries.

    How does Indonesia view the global multilateral trade talks, also called the Doha Round, for the future of the global economic recovery?

    There is little doubt that the multilateral trade links in developing countries will be a significant driver of economic recovery and growth. There is a very strong call to safeguard the world trade system. We need a strong political will for that. I cannot emphasise enough the risk of a failure in a multilateral trading system for a developing country. We firmly believe that for the global economic recovery, it is important that the Doha Round be completed without any further delay and an equitable trading regime is put in place.

    What are your areas of concern where you feel that the Indian economy could open up?

    We strongly feel that India should open up its retail sector where Indonesia has a lot to offer through its own marketing chains. Similarly, banking is an area of lot of opportunity and that needs to be addressed by the Indian counterparts. We are hopeful that the India-Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) agreement on services and goods would be put in place by March 2011 before the India-ASEAN summit. The ASEAN is in favour of 10 plus one formula whereas India wants a one plus 10 formula in this regard. We hope to convince India about the ASEAN stand which is unlikely to change. We hope India would see reason and is able to finalise the deal by March next year.


    Dhaka: fastest growing megacity in the world (http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/asia/100831/bangladesh-megacities-part-one) GlobalPost



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  • alisa
    01-04 03:21 PM
    I know why you wanted to avoid this dawood Ibrahim. It clearly shows unwillingness for pakistan to take actions on these terrorists.

    Your leaps from me to Pakistan, and vice versa, are getting annoying now. You talk about what my views on Dawood Ibrahim are in one sentence, and in the next you conclude that that shows something on the part of Pakistan.

    Now, for the last time, I personally think that it would be beneficial for Pakistan to investigate and get to the bottom of the Bombay incident, and use it as an opportunity to further build public opinion in Pakistan against the militants and the jihadists. (Sadly, I don't see that happening.) The perpetrators of Bombay should be tried for treason for attempting to start a war with India. To me, that is more important, than Masood Azhar, and Dawood Ebrahim, and the past.

    Again, that is my personal opinion on what is important. You are more than welcome to disagree with it. But don't suggest that what I think proves something about official Pakistani policy.





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  • pthoko
    07-11 10:10 AM
    pthoko..

    wait for UN's reply

    but I think it is better to be honest on the G328 form and not lie as it mentions in coconut sized letters that we r mentioning the facts and signing the forms. Later on they will have all the rights to ask proof documents thru RFE for paystubs,w2 etc, after that we cannot lie anymore and might land in further mess. we submit all the H1/L1 approvals at the time of 485 filing..they can just enter the case# and get the whole history of the case...

    AFAIK..I don't think yours is a violation of status, you were eligible to work on L1 until 2006 and also eligible to work on H1 since Oct 2005. In a H1 scenario,if I extend my H1 with current employer until next July, meanwhile find another employer and file a H1 with new employer until next July, after 4 months with new employer, you change your mind and want to go back to old employer..you can work with old employer until July as long as the old employer does not cancel your old H1..

    * i140 stage,only the companies financial records r checked,you even need not be employed with them when you r filing the i140.
    * 1st time stamping in Canada/Mexico for H1b is not possible I think as it has to be done in home country,unless you have a US Masters.

    btw...I have a question, does your H1b approval have an i94 attached with it...? hopefully ..yes..

    YES my H1B approval had an I-94 attached with it. Same no: as my L1 I-94.

    Thanks.



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  • dealsnet
    01-10 12:55 PM
    Muslims did all ethnic clensing inall over the world. Because of that people run away from their lands. Israel people driven out by Roman empire after these muslims. They come back and retake their land. Why crying foul ?.
    700 people died in palastine after sending rocket terrorism.
    But in recent history
    1. In 19th century turkey massecred 2 million Armanian christians. Armanians are still christians. They did resist conversion. They rather die for the faith. Some dispersed all over the world. You can find Armanian people in India.
    2. Ottoman empire (turkey)killled all in constantanople, half of the country consist of Today's turkey and killed population of 100% christians. (YOU CAN SEE THESE HISTORY IN CHANNEL 13).
    3. Same kind of killing conversion in Persia (Iran) and parsis, fled to India. (TATA , Feroz Gandhi are parsis).
    4. Same happem in Iraq and people from there come ti India. chrisians come to Kerala are called knaya (chaldians, jews bagdadis) and others in Mangalore in Karnataka. They settled in koorg. They are called koorgis. Field marshall Manakshe is a koorgi.
    5. They did same in spain, Bosnia, and many parts of europe. But they cannot do all over the europe. Poland and others join together to fight them out later and kicked out of spain and most part of europe. So they did a good thing to cut the cancer.
    So crusade is a good war to prevent the cancer. One more crusade is needed to eliminate the disease.
    If Britain not controlled India and Killed the murderer Tippu sultan and others, India will have 100% muslim population by threat and killing. So we need to thank Britain for that. Any way they are better than these barbarians. At least they did some development and made road and start schools.

    In Isreal, the palestine population is increased. They make 10 children each for the family like they do in India to increase the population.

    Egyptians like bfadlia have grudge against Israel is they suffered defeat from them in all wars. Like India did to pakistan. Egypt is a prominent country in middle east in 1960's. So to make their status as a defender and protector of all muslims like a status of Turkey planned to attack ISRAEL. Their stupid president announced they are going to wipe out Israel. Israel know their plan and within 30 minutes, they bomb all egypt's airforce base and destroy all fighter planes. So they have only smoke to fire. So they are defeated the war without a fight. It last less than one week. Israel get more land. So these Arabs are like injured their ego. Finally Egypt come out to sign peace treaty with Israel to live happy after that. This moral story not liked other stupid Arabs. Egyptians only vent anger by speaking like this guy. Now they do not do anything to harm their standing with Israel.


    man, what r u talking about?!!!
    Britain didn't give any land to Egypt or Jordan.. After half a century of enabling jewish migration to palestine (not out of its kind heart, but an anti-semetic european plan to rid europe of them), Britain suddenly pulled out of the region in 1947 and Israeli gangs started going village to village massacring palestinians and throwing them off their lands. egypt managed to protect the palestinians who fled to gaza, about 1.5 million refugees now crammed in that very tiny city, jordan protected the ones who fled to the west bank, but again Israel attacked and occupied both of these since 1967 Imagine being kicked off your prosperous home and put in a refugee camp nearby while others enjoy your home, then them complaining that you should be pleased they allow you to live in the refugee camp and you should let them live in peace..
    at least get some basics about gaza here if you want to discuss it http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/08/opinion/08khalidi.html





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  • ashkam
    04-15 02:59 PM
    Are people seriously arguing that a child will not be happier in a bigger home, everything else remaining constant? Seriously, is someone actually arguing this?

    And money can't buy happiness? Really? Are you saying everything else remaining constant if I gave you money it would make you sad? Seriously? Who is this person who would be sadder if I gave him money? I would like to meet him.

    You people need to stop reminiscing about your childhood days and how happy your childhood was even though you had no money. I have a feeling that your child doesn't really care. Sure, give your child lots of love, but for Christ's sake, if you can afford it, don't make him / her spend his / her childhood in a small cramped apartment just because you had to.



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  • pitha
    09-26 10:38 AM
    cir failed because the senate did not have a filibuster proof majority (60) to pass cir. This time the democrats are expected to gain 4 to 5 seats in the senate, that will take there majority to 54 or 55 from the current 50 (49 +liberman). With a majority of 54 or 55 the filibuster will not happen again in senate and cir will pass in the senate.

    The difference between Bush and obama in calling for cir is that Bush was an unpopular lame duck president, his party was a minority in both the house and senate. Obama if elected president would have the democrats in control of both the house and senate, therefore when obama says he wants to pass cir, it will happen, so take it seriously and dont live in a fantasy that CIR will fail again.

    to all those people who cliam that cir won't be bad, please, please name some provisions that were good for Eb immigrants. Please dont use words like "hope", might" etc, obama and durbin want to knock the living daylights out of EB immigrants. I want to know if there was anything good in cir, not good things you hope to be in cir

    These are a list of bad things that were in cir and will be in obama-durbin cir

    -DId cir have stem exemption? answer no
    -Did cir have visa recapture? answer no
    -Did cir increase the eb quota to reduce the backlog? answer no
    -Did cir exempt the existing EB applicants from the new "points based
    system", answer this seems to be a gray area, no clear answer (there is a
    debate about this)
    -Did cir have draconian restrictions on H1, answer yes
    if there are any more nagatives please add to the list.

    guys, the reason behind this post is not to pick a fight with anyone or to win an argument, but to look at the facts and realize the deep shit we will be in and address the issues. Just like a sick patient will expire if he lives in denial and does not take his medicine, we the eb immigrants will expire with cir if we dont realize we will be sick with cir and start looking for medicine.

    Last time the CIR bill died because a lot of people are against granting amnesty to illegal immigrants ( both Republicans and democrats ) . The president alone ( read Obama ) cannot decide that he wants to pass this bill because remember last year Bush was strongly in favour of the CIR bill and even had a conference with Senate leaders to push it through but it failed . The politicians know that the American people don't like the bill but they have to show that they are concerned with solving the illegal immigrant issue. This CIR bill is only a political gimmick. It came into picture because of the upcoming elections and next year I am pretty sure with no more elections the interest would not be that much to get it passed ( although I am sure there will be a lot of people interested in getting it to the House and the Senate ).

    As someone said before if they try to bring some anti - highly skilled workers bill then the big companies are sure to cry out loud ( Microsoft , Cisco , Oracle etc etc ) and the politicians don't listen to us but they will surely listen to them. They have got the clout to get themselves heard.





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  • waitnwatch
    08-05 05:22 PM
    Here's the logic behind this debate as I see it (not that there is much logic in the way the immigration laws/rules are framed)

    A person with a Master's or a PhD has spent 2-3 or 5-6 years respectively to get their degrees but do not get a priority date reflecting that time spent on acquiring the qualifications.

    On the other hand a person with a bachelors who gets 5 years experience can port their priority date while moving from EB3 to EB2 thereby getting credit for time spent.

    Porting is law while the Bachelor+5 is due to some memo. This memo does not take into consideration the above inconsistency and therefore this debate.

    I hope this sounds logical to atleast some of you folks.



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  • gc28262
    06-07 02:58 PM
    Very interesting discussion going on in this thread.

    Can some of the gurus here point to some websites for fundamentals of home buying as well as investment in general ?

    Appreciate your feedback.





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  • bfadlia
    01-09 04:26 PM
    This is the simple logic everybody tried to convey to Refugee_now in 15 pages of this thread. But he don't understand or don't want to !!!!

    so.. by your logic, Al qaeda has declared war on the United states (they did, OBL issued that declaration some time in the late 90s) civilians die in each war, so alqaeda had every right to kill civilians in 9/11?
    Of course not! Intentional targeting of civilians is inexcusable and constitutes a war crime and we should never cease to protest it regardless if it is done by a primitive terrorist or from the comfort of an F-16.



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  • gc28262
    09-26 09:41 AM
    For me Obama and Mccain are equally good candidates. I would prefer Hillary Clinton over both of them.

    McCain is a great guy, but he is with the wrong party. A party that aligns itself with anti-immigrants.

    Now that we don't have much hopes for HR-5882, we should start targeting the CIR right now. Maybe we can talk to the Hispanic and other groups which will have an influence over CIR and have our provisions taken care of.

    It will definitely be easier to tie-up with Hispanic caucus and other groups than anti-immigrants.





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  • RaviG
    07-14 08:42 PM
    The way it is working for EB2, it is going to work exactly for EB3.

    If this is the case.
    Given the high number of ROW EB3 it will never help Indian EB3. so spilling some of EB1 over to EB3 doesn't really help Indian EB3. But this letter could hurt Indian EB2. Now there is hope for lot of Indian EB3 to convert to EB2. That could be lost. I am als one of the converts.





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  • GCKaMaara
    12-17 04:24 PM
    LOL!

    Nice to see some light moments here :)





    senthil1
    04-06 11:24 PM
    Basically the H1b Cap issue should be resolved. Either unlimited H1b or restriction in bodyshopping is needed to resolve the problem to keep H1b system working. Or current broken system will continue. Also gc is completed related to H1b you can take think what will be the impact. Situation is not good for GC seekers. If they increase h1b retrogession will increase. If they restrict H1b same gc seekers will be impacted. Basically this forum members have to ask unlimited H1b and unlimited GC to satisfy everyone. Is that achivable?

    what are you saying? The above post is totally incoherent





    Madhuri
    04-05 08:12 PM
    Jang.Lee,
    I totally aggree with you. I am also from socal and a regular visior to irvinehousingblog.
    Currenly I am in apt and tired of living in apt, but I am definitely in no rush to buy and would probably find a good private home to rent.

    Please check your PM.

    I think you missed my point. I was not trying to connect the ARM reset schedule with write-offs at wall street firms. Instead, I was trying to point out that there will be increased number of foreclosures as those ARMs reset over the next 36 months.

    The next phase of the logic is: increased foreclosures will lead to increased inventory, which leads to lower prices, which leads to still more foreclosures and "walk aways" (people -citizens- who just dont want to pay the high mortgages any more since it is way cheaper to rent). This leads to still lower prices. Prices will likely stabilize when it is cheaper to buy vs. rent. Right now that calculus is inverted. In many bubble areas (both coasts, at a minimum) you would pay significantly more to buy than to rent (2X or more per month with a conventional mortgage in some good areas).

    On the whole, I will debate only on financial and rational points. I am not going to question someone's emotional position on "homeownership." It is too complicated to extract someone out of their strongly held beliefs about how it is better to pay your own mortgage than someone elses, etc. All that is hubris that is ingrained from 5+ years of abnormally strong rising prices.

    Let us say that you have two kids, age 2 and 5. The 5 year old is entering kindergarten next fall. You decide to buy in a good school district this year. Since your main decision was based on school choice, let us say that your investment horizon is 16 years (the year your 2 year old will finish high school at age 18).

    Let us further assume that you will buy a house at the price of $600,000 in Bergen County, with 20% down ($120,000) this summer. The terms of the loan are 30 year fixed, 5.75% APR. This loan payment alone is $2800 per month. On top of that you will be paying at least 1.5% of value in property taxes, around $9,000 per year, or around $750 per month. Insurance will cost you around $1500 - $2000 per year, or another $150 or so per month. So your total committed payments will be around $3,700 per month.

    You will pay for yard work (unless you are a do-it-yourself-er), and maintenance, and through the nose for utilities because a big house costs big to heat and cool. (Summers are OK, but desis want their houses warm enough in the winter for a lungi or veshti:))

    Let us assume further that in Bergen county, you can rent something bigger and more comfortable than your 1200 sq ft apartment from a private party for around $2000. So your rental cost to house payment ratio is around 1.8X (3700/2000).

    Let us say further that the market drops 30% conservatively (will likely be more), from today through bottom in 4 years. Your $600k house will be worth 30% less, i.e. $420,000. Your loan will still be worth around $450k. If you needed to sell at this point in time, with 6% selling cost, you will need to bring cash to closing as a seller i.e., you are screwed. At escrow, you will need to pay off the loan of $450k, and pay 6% closing costs, which means you need to bring $450k+$25k-$420k = $55,000 to closing.

    So you stand to lose:

    1. Your down payment of $120k
    2. Your cash at closing if you sell in 4 years: $55k
    3. Rental differential: 48 months X (3700 - 2000) = $81k

    Total potential loss: $250,000!!!

    This is not a "nightmare scenario" but a very real one. It is happenning right now in many parts of the country, and is just now hitting the more populated areas of the two coasts. There is still more to come.

    My 2 cents for you guys, desi bhais, please do what you need to do, but keep your eyes open. This time the downturn is very different from the business-investment related downturn that followed the dot com bust earlier this decade.



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